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Oscars 2026 Best Actor Odds Update After BAFTAs: See the Frontrunner!

5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

With about 4% of the bets, Ethan Hawke is considered the least likely nominee to win.

He earned his nomination for his performance in Blue Moon.

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

With about 5% of the bets, Wagner Moura is considered the fourth most likely to win.

He earned his nomination for his performance in The Secret Agent.